This week Pat & John take over the Mic and are Joined by Jason Swinton from Domain.com.au to discuss the shape of the Tassie Market in 2020 & what may be coming in 2021.


EPISODE TRANSCRIPT // Transcribed by https://otter.ai (Artifcial Intelligence Transcription) 

Patrick Berry  0:13  

Hi everyone, Patrick Berry for 4one4 Property Co; and welcome to The Property Pod. 

Today we are flying solo without Aaron Horne. That's why I'm here on the mics enjoying the show. But I do have my regular guest, John McGregor here. Welcome, mate.

John McGregor  0:24  

Man, I'm not gonna give up this corner. This is my seat. Even if I'm sick, so I think look, who knows how it's gonna happen. We've got this though.

Patrick Berry  0:33  

Yeah. I’m a biit nervous?! I'm over here on the actual controls, working all these little dials and knobs and I'm gonna be honest, I don't have any idea what I'm doing.

John McGregor  0:40  

But you look impressive 

Patrick Berry  0:42  

I've got lots of flashy lights and pretty colours here. 

So yeah, just put them on. Yeah, someone take a photo because I look like I know what I'm doing.

 And as Aaron always says, fake it till you make it!!!. Yeah, exactly. 

… and because obviously I'm not sure if you guys want to listen to John and i talk for half an hour- we've managed to get another guest on the show. 

John McGregor  1:00  

Yeah, so its Jason from domain, isn't it? 

He was on the second episode we did- and he was our very first guest on the pod.

Patrick Berry  1:23  

Yeah, so today we are looking at how the market has fared, from a search result perspective and inquiry perspective, things like that. 

So yeah, I think hopefully, it'll give us a bit of an insight as to what has happened in 2020, as far as the market goes here in Tasmania and our local area; and with COVID and everything around that. So I’m kind of interested to see where Hobart sits.

John McGregor  1:41  

And I see, one thing that's really interesting about statistics is we're experiencing on a daily basis. And it's not until you've got that retrospective information that you can take and say,

Look, this is or what has been happening. So I'm actually really interested to see if what our stories are backed up by the data as well.

Patrick Berry  1:58  

What are you saying you make up your stories, John? Haha 

...Well, I guess John, and I could talk all day, but we should probably go to an ad and get Jason and he's out there in reception waiting for us. So let's do this.

John McGregor  2:23  

Well, welcome back everybody. 

And I'm very excited to bring back our very first guest from episode number two,Mr. Jason Swindon from Domain.com.au. Welcome back.

Jason Swinton  2:43  

Thanks, John. 

Thanks, Pat. 

Thank you for having me. 

Patrick Berry  2:46  

Oh, well, thank you for coming back. 

Obviously, we didn't scare you too hard the first time around. 

Jason Swinton  2:50  

No, no,

John McGregor  2:52  

I think we're a little bit more in control. 

And our voices seem a little bit more settled then on episode number two. 

But I mean, the good thing is, I think this time around, it's for the same stories and objects, you can really feel a seal on what things were like now versus 12 months ago is with all the statistics that the main economists have put together. Is that right?

Jason Swinton  3:08  

Yeah, look, pretty much, John, we got a few bits of information here just to talk about what's been happening in our local market and versus our statewide market this time last year, and this time this year, obviously, it's been a pretty big year for all of us. 

Patrick Berry  3:24  

I'm interested to hear how that's affected the industry. Obviously, we've felt like it's been pretty busy. But it'll be interesting to see the numbers

John McGregor  3:28  

Yeah. And I think everyone's got their own stories, too.

 And I think now it'd be interesting. 

Well, again, our Look, there's not enough property for sale, there's a lot more buyers. 

Jason Swinton  3:41  

Yeah, look,it's an interesting one, because listings themselves are down...there's not as much stock around as what we saw this time last year. 

So it's creating a bit of a supply and demand issue in most areas of Tasmania.

You know, just for you guys here locally, out here in that glenorchy and the Local Glenorchy Area. The listings themselves are down roughly around 6%. 

So not a huge amount, but when you break that down from a Tasmania statewide point of view, we're down roughly about 20% overall. 

Patrick Berry  4:07  

Oh, wow, that's a lot of properties across the entire state. 

John McGregor 4:10

Yeah, yeah. So that's obviously a sign that people aren't quite ready move they're just playing this year a little bit safe.

Jason Swinton  4:17  

Its an interesting one which we've tracked right through that kind of covid period you know, and we go back to March, April ,May when things really hit us and you know that the tap was turned off for a better expression. 

Yeah, and then kind of post that things are just started to slowly come back and you know, we're back to a market which a lot of people would say is, you know, back to the pre COVID or even better again, mostly, so yeah, it's been it's been a long year but it's moving into some pretty good signs as we come into Christmas in the new year.

John McGregor  4:45  

Well, I guess then when stock actually down 20% that's not exactly good news and purchases because of obviously fad exceptionally hard to find properties that suit them at the moment and I guess maybe some vendors are still going well, you know, I need this buyer to sell but I can't buy to sell because there's Nothing to buy in order for me to sell, you know, this is this, what someone's trying to get my head around. specifically to be silly, but effectively, you know, some people though they might be waiting, you know, waiting for things to settle a bit more or, you know that little bit tentative about putting on the market because they're afraid because there's, they're not going to have something to buy. So you know, someone's got to go first.

Jason Swinton  5:21  

Yeah, look at that. And that's the hard decision, I guess. You know, we look at all the information, we have all those stats that are there in front of us, and everything's pointing to that it is a good time to sell. Yeah, you know, listings are down. But our inquiries quite strong still, although the inquiries probably slightly different in terms of where it's been coming from comparison to where we were last year. It's, it's definitely more of it there. So very positive.

Patrick Berry  5:42  

Absolutely. You've brought your laptop along today. So I always get excited when I say spreadsheets. Yeah, like a love grab number. What are some of these exciting numbers that we've been able to discover? I guess?

Jason Swinton  5:52  

Yeah, look, without going into too much analytical detail. We'll just kind of cover a bit of an overview there. What we've kind of tracked right through that kind of covid period, when you look at, you know, our local area here and that glenorchy LGA and that whole statewide we've had a lot of in a lot of people from Victoria searching, but not

Patrick Berry  6:11  

being stuck at home for so long. But from scroll the website,

Jason Swinton  6:16  

yeah. Could be could be a good part of it. Like 45% of people that have searched in glenorchy, from Victoria, or the jealous that were 40 45% 45%. Yep, kind of through that, that that's the last three months that we've been looking at. There was no idea.

John McGregor  6:31  

Okay, so crazy. So there's like, so in the last, you know, three months now, so when Victoria was on real strict restrictions, etc, here, right. Okay.

Jason Swinton  6:40  

But that's that's the figure of how many in that period, but that's the same right through the last six months. Okay. It's been exactly the same, that Victorian search has been quite strong, then followed by test search, internal test search, and then New South Wales, and very much the same from a statewide point of view as well.

Patrick Berry  6:58  

That's crazy. I would not have thought that Victoria was going to be the big city that was looking into Tasmania, I would have assumed New South Wales straight off the bat. Yeah,

Jason Swinton  7:06  

look, we see a fair bit of that. And then when you when you go to the next step down, you look at Okay, well, that's the search. But what's happening after that, where's the inquiry coming from? It's a different story again, 71% of people that have been quiet are actually from within site, Tasmania. Yeah. So that's, that's, that's been a big fear. Yep.

Patrick Berry  7:23  

Indeed, fear must be a lot of Victorians that left the state for work opportunities. And now maybe you've seen the opportunity to come back, obviously, industries have changed now work from home, Internet's better, so you can do a lot more remote work? They're a little bit more flexibility.

Jason Swinton  7:37  

Yeah. And that's, that's the big point, you say they paid, you know, things are changing through COVID, you know, where people can actually work from is different, been looked at as this little island bubble as well during that whole period. So for safety net,

Patrick Berry  7:51  

movie about that later down the track?

Jason Swinton  7:54  

Look at sound, it's an interesting one, you look at kind of this time, last year versus versus this year, and we look at clinical Nokia, as an idea, Tesla's inquiries 82% of the glenorchy inquiry, New South Wales 10%. Okay, then the other states follow their from there, whereas the same time last year, and New South Wales was closer to 20%. So that has dropped off a considerable amount.

Patrick Berry  8:19  

It's a big difference when you look at that thought that

John McGregor  8:21  

it'd be a no with, like I said, we won't go too bogged down into it.

Patrick Berry  8:25  

But why you don't like numbers?

John McGregor  8:26  

Well, not like interpreted, interpreting, interpret, interpreting it. But where then be interesting, depending upon the advice, where different states, you know, if people from interstate are looking for opportunities in terms of investment, you know, either hitting North Queensland at the moment is victorious, you know, South Australia, look, be interested to see then if the states have changed their tune as to where they're inquiring on and be will be interesting to see them. Why that was the case. You know, as they've seen the price of rising now there, they don't want to be the thought that missed the opportunity to take advantage of they're looking for the next place to get quick capital growth. So I'd imagine. So, yeah,

Patrick Berry  9:05  

I was just letting you draw that. I know he's going with

John McGregor  9:11  

Aaron, if you're ready, then you can cut that hole.

Patrick Berry  9:18  

I think what you were trying to say was that different people get information and they see opportunities in different states and they want to capitalise on it. And that changes as the price changes. And then that can affect how many people are searching a certain area. Yeah, absolutely. Any way you're going to save you can save yourself

Unknown Speaker  9:35  

today.

Patrick Berry  9:38  

Overall, you've said that sort of the increase has been pretty dramatic. Right across the state from inquiry level, whatever sort of data we discovered,

Jason Swinton  9:45  

yeah, look, if you look at that, some that statewide side of things, and just touching on where the inquiries coming from, again, just to kind of round that out a little bit from a statewide audience. You know, this time last year Tez had roughly about 57% of the income Inside tears, and then we moved out to New South Wales at 24%. It stayed relatively the same as estate for this year, though.

Patrick Berry  10:07  

Okay, so Tasmanians are still searching for property. So

Jason Swinton  10:10  

it's 66% of the tears are is been Tasmanian, still New South Wales at 17%. And the other following there. So it's not a dramatic change there from a statewide point of view. Yep. But big thing that we do see, though, is, you know, rounding out this this conversation, you look at what we've touched on there, from a search point of view, what we've touched on from listings point of view, inquiry itself is up and quite considerably, that's good. Just as an example that I've got here for the same time last year, we have, we're up 43% for the glenorchy area, just as an idea glenorchy said, 43%, more inquiry, over a 12 month period over a six month period, is looked at kind of when you know we got through the end of the financial year of June. Yep. COVID kind of finished for us about a better term.

Patrick Berry  10:57  

That is really crazy. When you think about that, that were up that much. Yeah. And so there's obviously a lot of confidence coming back into buying in the area. So obviously, people are starting to feel more competent about their job positions and their security. And then and now feeling a bit happier to expect.

John McGregor  11:11  

Good, good, good one. I

Patrick Berry  11:12  

hadn't thought of that, like said they've that they're feeling more confident about their job position. Well, people don't buy and once they feel feel safe in what they're doing. Yeah. Yep. If you're getting such a massive increase in inquiries, just in glenorchy alone,

Jason Swinton  11:25  

and a lot of its local inquiry, as we've touched on, yeah, you know, we're always we always have a very strong interstate base for our inquiry as well. And that's been a bit slower, we just start to see that start to pick back up again now, though, that our borders are starting to open up again. So it's really, really encouraging from for us locally,

John McGregor  11:43  

a couple of couple of comments that the buyer's agents that we've had on these last couple episodes was a lot of their their inquiries that they're getting, I mean, they can only take on, you know, very few few clients, but some of the things because they've had such a hard time securing property that now they're engaging professionals in order to make that happen. So it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the interstate people that were inquiring just got burnt out from being beaten actually by locals,

Patrick Berry  12:06  

which is a nice change, because a couple of years ago, a local couldn't buy a property or save themselves. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. How the Times have changed. Yeah.

John McGregor  12:12  

We're taking it back. Would that that is an interesting thought, though. Because eyes now they're thinking Are we just get beaten, get beaten by people from interstate paying cash and blah, blah, blah, is actually not the case where you're getting beaten by locals. And when it comes to negotiating on property? So

Patrick Berry  12:30  

Well, that's good for anyone that owns a house in the area. If you're thinking about selling, it sounds like you're probably in a really good position to to get a good outcome at the moment. Yeah,

Jason Swinton  12:38  

definitely. At the moment, that is, you know, there's not as many houses out there to be sold. So you're not competing against as many people as you normally would be. Yeah, I get that sale. But there is more people. Yeah. And for properties. So supply demand.

Patrick Berry  12:52  

Yeah, we work on buyers market, neutral market or a seller's market. And what you're describing is very much so a seller's market where sellers should be able to achieve an exceptional result, because there's more buyers fighting for that one property. So that's really good to hear. And really good positive news, I guess, in what can be seen as a pretty negative year for a lot of things.

John McGregor  13:10  

And we, we've been going through the process at the moment, this end of the year of reaching out to a client saying, hey, look, it's time for an annual checkup. Because so much has changed and figuring out a because we try and look at a few different indicators. When assessing what a fair market price might be. You've got you know, sell price versus capital valuations in the air, you got comparable sales, you've got summation, so you grabbing, you know, estimated land value plus house value, but then the one you just can't really pick is it's the market competition rally. And that's where you positioning your property where you think it might, you know, attract interest, and then who knows where it's gonna go on?

Patrick Berry  13:43  

What do you call it? The X Factor, john? Yeah, I'd

John McGregor  13:45  

run with that, as they expect. That's good. But but that's so sometimes to so many stories now. It's like all the property sold five 5% 10%, above market or going was 50 grand above or 100 grand above. And, you know, for us as a professional standpoint, that's just something that's really hard to gauge, because you just don't know, when the markets leaning into this depth of competition, like you're referring to like 50% extra inquiry, it's an exciting place to play. But even from us, then it's just Well, how do you navigate that? Well, it's, it's, it's an interesting one. It's interesting,

Patrick Berry  14:16  

very much. So very exciting times and what looks like will be a bumper 2021 buzz out of it. Yeah, I'd

John McGregor  14:21  

be well, considering what we've still got the lowest interest rates that have ever happened. So money is really, really cheap. And what it looks like from what you described, Jason, now, it's going to be losing their appetite for property anytime soon. And given the fact that Intel has become more popular than ever, and everyone can seem to share the story that, you know, people used to get bagged up, and everyone wants to pay to the state these days. So it doesn't seem to be slowing at this point.

Jason Swinton  14:41  

It all just seems to be pushing, pushing through and strength to strength really. So it's really, really good for us.

John McGregor  14:46  

But is there is there any Was there anything that in your research now that really surprised you? Or was it something that you could you could obviously see on a day to day basis,

Jason Swinton  14:54  

not necessarily anything that is really surprising, I mean, to be in the market where Now, if you had asked me that six months ago, kind of during those kind of COVID months for a better term, I'm surprised we are where we are.

Unknown Speaker  15:07  

Yeah, she's

Patrick Berry  15:08  

back in March, I thought I'd be getting rid of half our team, unfortunately. And like, really,

Unknown Speaker  15:12  

it was really a Yeah,

Patrick Berry  15:14  

I had no idea how I was gonna keep the last off employed back in March. Just a scary time, where we ended up is just amazing in such a short period of time.

Jason Swinton  15:22  

But I think that's the key as well, there. We just sit there, Pat is such a short period of time. You know, like, it seems like forever ago now, but it's not that long ago. It's not that long ago.

Patrick Berry  15:34  

That's exactly right. So to turn what was doom and gloom eight months ago, into what appears to be at this stage, quite a buoyant market. And what appears to have a lot of growth is quite remarkable really

John McGregor  15:44  

reminds me that image where you get a spring and you just like decompress it right down to a point to last explode again. It's probably almost like that, where everyone just got forced to stop doing things. And then now that lives been taken off the Springer as it hits the ceiling. Yeah.

Unknown Speaker  15:59  

I like that.

Patrick Berry  16:00  

That's a nice Johnny, he just got some crackers. today.

John McGregor  16:08  

jaw. Yeah. Pretty much swinging and missing.

Unknown Speaker  16:12  

out on you, john.

John McGregor  16:14  

Just got high standards. He looks after the respectable show.

Patrick Berry  16:20  

Actually, I have to admit, I think Aaron does hold us together. Yeah, kind of visiting today. Because john and i lose Canada. So sorry that he's not here to digest. But hopefully we can pull something together out of this episode.

John McGregor  16:31  

And so effectively, these numbers are looking at right up until today at this point, so it's the July through to the November or what?

Jason Swinton  16:40  

Yeah, so different parts, they're broken up in different ways, just because how I can try and extract the information. But that that inquiry that we're talking about being out, that's over the last back to first of July. So I kind of that period there and those listings, we've just captured those from the last three months, but still paints that picture for us.

John McGregor  17:00  

Yeah, see that? That's interesting about that. Because traditionally, we find that you know, especially in southern town, you've got these our hottest months, generally speaking, end up being September, October, November, and then you're looking at sort of February, February, or February, March, April. And then you get that, which makes sense, because then you got that, you know, pullback during winter. Like in terms of cyclically, if you look over the years, that seems to be the case. But with that, though, if the opposite is true, this time around, where we've got less people on the market, but nearly you know, you know, 50%, more inquiry, that's probably, you know, we couldn't even tell you the last time if that's ever happened in today's market before,

Patrick Berry  17:39  

there's a lot of less properties that you're implying or on the Internet at the moment. And look, we say it on a daily basis to like, we all know that we're not running as much stock as we normally would in the office and the things that we are getting so relatively fast as a result. So yeah, I guess it's no surprise to us. But it might be surprising to a lot of people to hear that there's not that much for sale, and people are sitting on the bench thinking do I sell do not sell sort of worrying a guess? Whether or not now's the right time? Yeah, I think they'd be surprised to hear that it actually probably do really well, at the moment,

Jason Swinton  18:08  

I think there really would be and you know, media plays a part in that as well. We've had probably, you know, what we thought would have been our toughest year, it hasn't ended up being too bad about what we hear from external factors is that it is still pretty bad. A lot of the time. So for anyone out there, that's just, you know, sitting on the fence or thinking I you know, could I sell Should I sell Maybe, maybe not, it is actually pretty a pretty good time to be out there in the market, the

Patrick Berry  18:34  

best thing he could probably do is just get someone out to have a chat. Yeah, find out what you're sitting on might actually surprise you, you might not realise that you've had such a large equity growth in maybe a short period of time, and you're sitting on something that allows you to make that next step. Yep. So I think if anyone is listening, and they are sort of thinking about it, I'm looking for a real estate agent. So we want you to sell your house with us. But at the end of the day, just get some information, the best thing you can do is be informed about what you're sitting on. And obviously, you've touched on it earlier, john, that that's what you're trying to do just by giving people just what you called a health check.

John McGregor  19:02  

I think it was, yeah, health check annual check out that kind of stuff. Yeah.

Patrick Berry  19:05  

So just to give people an idea of where they sit and might not even decide to sell their house, but they know they can go refinance and then go do something fun, but

John McGregor  19:14  

yeah, absolutely. So and I think too, you know, you can be strategic in the way that you sell your property in the way that the contracts are drafted up. If then, you know, you are concerned that you can't you're not gonna be able to find your property Well, when there's such an excess of demand for buyers at the moment. So they're gonna they'll allow themselves to be Be patient. So if you're worried about taking the first step, well, there are ways you can protect yourself as well. And like the you know, doing those checkups, and then having that conversation is a really good place to start.

Patrick Berry  19:41  

Yeah, that's exactly right. And look at the end of the day if you do decide to go to market I'm sure if you utilise services like domain and their premium products, you'll get an exceptional result. Why you Jason? Well, it's been a really interesting look into what's happened this year. Obviously, it's definitely different to how we thought it was going to be but it's been great having you on just to get a feel for it and To get an understanding of it, obviously people can find out about domain just by going to domain.com.au shokin. Beautiful made. And obviously, if you are thinking about selling, just reach out to your local real estate agent because they can tell you all about the products that are available on their website. Absolutely. Beautiful. Well, thanks heaps for coming in today, Jason, it's been really good just to get you in and get a bit of a an idea. And hopefully, we can get you in again in 2021. And go through it all. Again.

Unknown Speaker  20:22  

Thank you for having me and look forward to coming back.

Patrick Berry  20:25  

No problem at all. Nicely done.

Unknown Speaker  20:28  

All right. Well, that

Patrick Berry  20:28  

was an interesting look as to how things are happening.

John McGregor  20:30  

Yeah, that that the idea that inquiry has increased 50%. And then across the state listings of, you know, available properties are backed by 20%. So like, that's pretty significant numbers, if you think about

Patrick Berry  20:42  

Yeah, I can't believe 20% less properties for selling all of Tasmania. Yeah. If you think about that, just on a whole, like our agency we sell what do we sell about 20 a month? Something like that? Yeah. And we're only one of what how many agencies in the state to be 40 agencies? 50 agencies in the state?

John McGregor  20:58  

Well, yeah, I mean, that means I'm assuming that must be nearly 1000 plus less properties that are available for people. I would have thought so

Patrick Berry  21:05  

yeah. So that's huge numbers when you think about it like that? Yeah. No wonder people are struggling to buy something at the moment. And when something comes up for sale, people jump on it quick. Yeah. Because they know that if they don't, someone else is going to

John McGregor  21:17  

well, and that's backed up by I mean, the numbers of inquiries. We're personally getting the conversations, we had the buyer's agents. Yeah. And then even just again, back to anecdotal stories, but actual experiences that our eyes are reflecting on us where they're just almost exasperated, and sometimes I've had a I've had a break and then they're coming back in the found out that this nothing's better even after this break. Yeah. Hmm.

Patrick Berry  21:37  

Oh, obviously, it sounds like 2021 is going to be about a roller coaster ride. So I'm looking forward to strapping in

John McGregor  21:43  

Yeah, yeah, that's that I know. People were having conversations with me at the time. And COVID was like, Look, how's this gonna affect? Everything's like, Who knows? And now we do. And it's just like, it's just coming from strength. Yeah,

Patrick Berry  21:54  

like, if you'd asked me back in March, I would have been almost like, should probably so now before it gets worse. Yeah. Yes. I don't think anyone predicted the opposite of what happens now. And

John McGregor  22:02  

look, fundamentally, that would have been the right decision. If you had to move back then. Yeah. Three to six months later. Well, there you go. Amazing.

Patrick Berry  22:10  

Oh, somehow we've managed to string about a 25 minute episode together. I don't know how we've done it without you rock. Aaron. Look, there are all those guests out there. Aaron will be back on the mic next week. So yes, dress man, he'll be back. But I think we're probably gonna wrap the day before we say something we shouldn't do. I

John McGregor  22:25  

think that's a great idea. Well, with me allowing me to do the intro, thank you, again, everyone for listening. And we as we always forget, like, share and all that kind of social media stuff makes a big difference. And we're really looking forward to being back next week.

Patrick Berry  22:38  

Thanks, guys. So yeah, all the best. You have been listening to the property both recorded and edited by 414 Media house in conjunction with 414 property code. This podcast is general information only. And the thoughts and views expressed is the opinion of our panel and listeners should always seek the news their own investigation into any topic we discuss to ensure they fully understand their own situation.

John McGregor  22:59  

It does not constitute and should not be relied on as purchasing or selling financial or investment advice or recommendations, expressed or implied, and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any agent or investment services. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken on the basis of this information without first seeking qualified and professional advice.