John McGregor
But it's it's just.

Patrick Berry
Interesting as to who is predicting which way the market will go.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, I guess as I was reading through some of the notes, I was thinking about how by some Press Ltd proper geology, I know there's some info in there, but yeah, he often says that kind of yet looking at all this data is at those big centers of Melbourne Sydney our kind of market here in Hobart is it's slightly different.

Aaron Horne
And then in some of his notes he's predicted, you know, Hobart, Burnie, Devonport, pretty good spot to still continue to look. I might have misquoted him then, but he'll be fine with it.

John McGregor
I'm sure if.

Patrick Berry
You're in Devonport Polytech.

John McGregor
And that's pretty close. Yeah.

Patrick Berry
Going was going to. I know you're listening to the property on.

Aaron Horne
All right guys, welcome back to the property pod. Your weekly engagement into real estate here in the Hobart marketplace. I'm your host, Aaron Horn. It's 2023. First crab off the rack, bagging it up right at the end of the landing.

Patrick Berry
I love that you say weekly in that opening. Yet here we are, February nine.

John McGregor
It's been holidays.

Aaron Horne
Yes, holidays. People have been away. It is a government mandated breather between podcasting and podcast. Every week of the year, it becomes way too oversaturated in the market. Everyone's got to have a breather.

Patrick Berry
They're not saying.

Aaron Horne
No, we're back. We're in action. It's fine. People have missed us of had we only signed off. Mark I've had about five people say, Where's the show? Is it over? Please be over.

John McGregor
Here. It's not over.

Aaron Horne
No. Welcome back. It's 2023. It's a new year. We're here. We're in the same studio all at the same spot. How are we doing, guys? How are you, John?

John McGregor
Feel good. Who? Really good, actually. It's nice. It is nice to be back because I missed your voice pretty much for the whole of January. You weren't really here, you know.

Aaron Horne
Well, you can probably fill us all in on your adventures. Just kind of let the listeners know where you were.

Patrick Berry
Yeah. I decided to go caravanning become one of those great nomads, but not so great.

Aaron Horne
It's so funny.

John McGregor
It literally. It is like, I'm getting creative. I let it grow as well.

Aaron Horne
It's one of those things where if are said to me three or four years ago, I reckon you'd never do a caravan trip with your kids.

Patrick Berry
Why exactly in six weeks? Why two weeks in? I thought, why am I doing this? So where did you go? I headed up to Airlie Beach, middle of Queensland, I guess. You describe it? Yeah.

Aaron Horne
And your folks have a place on the coast? Yeah. Yeah. So you went there for Chrissy?

Patrick Berry
Yes, I Christmas, Broadbeach, you know, hit the beach, hit the sand sun. All that stuff is good fun.

Aaron Horne
Normally we'd be jealous of that down here in Hobart for Christmas, but we had absolute cracking weather on Christmas here.

Patrick Berry
Yeah, but have you had enough sun that you still have a three.

Aaron Horne
For three from Taunton.

Patrick Berry
I've got actually.

John McGregor
My foot is still.

Patrick Berry
Got that thong. Ten. Have a.

John McGregor
Nice with shoes on.

John McGregor
For.

John McGregor
The next month.

Patrick Berry
So that would have gone by now but it hasn't so it's nice.

Aaron Horne
So what did you learn on your adventures up north? What what kind of give us a brief elevator pitch of what you saw, what you liked, what you like.

Patrick Berry
Look, I learned Queensland's incredibly hot and I don't know why people want to live there. The thought of you don't. And you want to move to Tasmania. John, I would love to help you out.

John McGregor
We got your.

Patrick Berry
Back. If that heat is getting to you, we're here to help.

Aaron Horne
Stuck the.

John McGregor
Landing. Yeah. Yeah. Nice.

Patrick Berry
Yeah, but no, it's just really like it's weird. No daylight savings as well in Queensland that I can't get my head around.

Aaron Horne
Well, the cows don't like it.

Patrick Berry
Oh.

Aaron Horne
That's why I canceled that. Oh it's literally like they try to trot it one year. They kind of said like, oh, see how we go, It's too hard to get up. And Malcolm, if the clocks in our back the other way.

John McGregor
Yeah.

Patrick Berry
Yes that can cows in any other state in Australia don't have that issue.

Aaron Horne
That is used to it. They've got to eye watches or something like that. Okay.

John McGregor
I'm going to go with that one.

Aaron Horne
You can fact check me on it, but I'm pretty sure that's nothing to do with with the chaos.

John McGregor
Look, I've never had a reason for it, but now that is my reason.

John McGregor
The cows don't like it if it's true or not.

Aaron Horne
I got to fact check this. I'll be back next week with the cows. Oh, I'll take it in such a way to. It'll help me.

John McGregor
Out. Oh, that'll work.

Patrick Berry
Now that perfume that I've been, I did bike riding mucked around with. So a lot of housing estates being constructed up the coast of the highways inland. Like they do it differently, like here in Tassie you say subdivision go up, it's 30 houses over there, it's like 500 houses a school, a Woolworth's like a do a whole they build a city in one hit.

Patrick Berry
So you drive up the highway and you get an hour out of Melbourne and then all of a sudden, you know, parklands opening soon and you see the billboard and it's not just the subdivision, it's a whole city they're building.

John McGregor
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Aaron Horne
I guess it's kind of like remember that time ages ago, back on the plot, we spoke about those megacities they built in China, trying to get everybody to move out of the cities, and now they're just these abandoned ghost towns because they're just like, everybody move out of where you've grown up and lived or you're not interested.

John McGregor
Just. Just, just ghost cities. It's crazy.

Patrick Berry
Yeah, well, I guess these cities are working relatively well because the people can afford to buy. So they're forced. Yes, those areas. But now it's interesting just seeing how different states do it.

John McGregor
I guess it must be much a way better thought out because rather than just a whole the glut of houses it's got will always services are already integrated into that hub so boom you've got a new community. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Aaron Horne
Town planning is actually we were in Launceston just last weekend for festival, went up there with the family and where we stayed was kind of an old Launceston like just near the hospital. Yeah. Yeah. And trying to navigate some of those little side streets which are one way and tiny little things. We're in this maze and you just think like, oh yeah, like town planning has come a long way now where it's like, what?

Aaron Horne
Oh yeah.

Patrick Berry
No, you're right. And when we're in Canberra, that's exactly how if, to be really honest there, because Canberra's building was actually an architectural competition when they built that city. So there's actually a whole museum you can go in Canberra about how they designed the city of Canberra and why it flows so well. And it does use dry after driving through Queensland and Sydney and you get to Canberra and you let this place just get anywhere.

Patrick Berry
Hey, I'd live here and I was like, No, you wouldn't.

John McGregor
Unless you're in the army to drive. Yeah.

Aaron Horne
Well, speaking of driving, I know like this is a little grumble, but while we're away there was that the time that the whole city came to a standstill with that truck fell over on the. It actually felt like a heist was happening. I thought there was like a truck that fell over on the Tasman Bridge. I crash on the bound bridge and I think something happened on the southern outlet like this calculated Ocean's 11 style thing.

Aaron Horne
We're like, we're going to take out all the major arterial roads, then we're going to hit Fortnite. There's like a die hard three.

Patrick Berry
So see, we don't even know maybe in the basement underneath, you know, the wharf is joint foot reserve of gold for Australia.

Aaron Horne
It well could be, it could be it, We could be on to something. I think we should start a true crime podcast the day Hobart stood still.

John McGregor
Do you distinctly remember that day? That was like that? Did the music just crack and.

John McGregor
It I could just.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, that's. That was a mofo thing.

John McGregor
I was there in it. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Aaron Horne
Well look, I wouldn't put it past Walsh.

John McGregor
And the submarine was going out of the dirt into the secret, but.

Patrick Berry
It did just advertise that he won $80 million. It's. I mean, maybe it's a cover story.

Aaron Horne
Guys. Well, let's pitch. Let's. No more property talk. Maybe there was gold in the Lake Illawarra under the bridge. I've worked this all out. Yeah.

John McGregor
Yes. Yeah.

John McGregor
Conspiracy podcast it every Thursday.

Patrick Berry
Oh, can we ever get this some backdrop back on track?

Aaron Horne
We can. We just got to find out what Johnny Mack did on his little period away. We just got to catch up with you. How was your time over Christmas?

John McGregor
Well, ours was just spent with family, actually, and then just doing little small bits renovations at the home and at our investment property. Yep. So it was a because both of my brothers are down, which is always great. So we try and spend as much time with them as possible. And Luke announced that he's getting he got engaged.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, I heard.

John McGregor
Yeah. We're next week I suppose if we're released today. Actually he's going to go to his wedding now.

Patrick Berry
I heard that he had a big reveal planned and your dad squished that on the head by just stuffing it up.

John McGregor
Oh, I think Luke wanted to do more than is his fiance. I mean.

Aaron Horne
Was it a solid?

John McGregor
Yeah, that was a really good to do a song.

Patrick Berry
But. And Chris says something along the lines. Well, I hope it's not about getting engaged to.

John McGregor
Somebody like that.

John McGregor
I could have done.

John McGregor
But I surprised Dunn.

Aaron Horne
Well, we'll have to fact check that as well.

Patrick Berry
But that's what the rumor in the office was when I came back.

John McGregor
And it was, mind you, with that thing where if you're to consider his personality, it's exactly something he would accidentally do. Yeah.

Patrick Berry
He's 14. And to be like, damn, it's it was.

John McGregor
It was a genuine surprise. It's really nice.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, well, my, my aunt was watching the project or something the other night. She said he had a ring on. Yeah.

John McGregor
Told him I don't want to see. Yeah. Let's listen.

Aaron Horne
But yeah, I actually watched him on Taskmaster Master last week. Hilarious.

John McGregor
That is a good show. So Grandma's.

John McGregor
Yeah.

Aaron Horne
What do you want to the When he died. Have you watched it? No, not this week. I had to make a video of his lifetime and it was, you know, one minute you had 45 minutes to make, and then he's like in and Luke died winning the six Olympic. No. Six grand final.

John McGregor
You know, And I lost it. So I get.

John McGregor
I think he said in a social post where is a you know, older brother Tom Gleeson. And I could just imagine those guys must just give each other hell yeah.

Aaron Horne
The red headedness of him.

John McGregor
Yeah. Yeah. It's, it's the debate is really good. I really enjoy now.

Aaron Horne
Very, very entertaining. So Channel ten, check out Luke on Taskmaster.

John McGregor
Yeah, yeah. But for me it was pretty, pretty crazy, which is fine. I didn't really need any more, to be honest. No, I worry about some big holidays down the road.

Aaron Horne
Very nice. Very nice. Well, we've had our prerequisite banter at the start of the show. Put in our show notes about Nina. Thank you for that. Appreciate that. Jumping into the market, it's it's interesting. Look, I wanted to kind of I wanted to put a positive spin on some things out there. Dave Recording yesterday, the Mercury came out with a huge headline on the front cover.

Aaron Horne
A drop in housing prices could be pretty dire out there for people. What I want is.

Patrick Berry
A big heading to. It took up like half the front page of the newspapers.

John McGregor
How you sell papers, baby.

Patrick Berry
But then I had to remind myself that nobody reads the newspapers.

John McGregor
I like.

Patrick Berry
It's a pretty negative page.

Aaron Horne
It was. It was. And it's interesting, lots of the mass media out there is about the the trickiness of the market out there. You guys are working in it every day. You guys are even while you're off. I know you're getting phone calls and yet you're always working. And even if you're up the east coast of Australia, still plugged into the system.

Patrick Berry
Unfortunately. Yes. Always still playing around.

John McGregor
Yeah.

Aaron Horne
What are the conversations that you guys are finding out there at the moment? Like we could run through a bunch of stats here about how the market was booming. It's kind of gone back to pre-COVID levels. We're talking corrections. In the past, it does seem to have shifted and when there's big headlines like that, it does seem to lead people to kind of hit the panic button.

John McGregor
Yeah, Yeah.

Aaron Horne
What's happening out there? Hit us with what? You talking to your vendors about what you're talking to buyers about? What's what's the story that you guys are finding as your truth?

John McGregor
Well, I'd say the the fear of missing out is going into the market. So on a general sense, we heard back three years ago, two years ago, the buyers were in that emotional sense, thinking, God, I have to buy now, otherwise I'm going to miss the boat. So it's that real driver of prices emotionally where they feel they just have to buy something.

Patrick Berry
And it's understandable because I think between 2017 and now, it was like 93 per price discovery. So for people that were trying to buy between over the last couple of years, every month they waited. They've had to pay more money to.

John McGregor
Where it was made.

Patrick Berry
So that's why there was that real sense to try to get things done a.S.A.P, because they were worried that, you know, if it takes me six months to buy a house and people are going to spend another $50,000 doing it.

John McGregor
Boom, I kind of afforded it.

Aaron Horne
So I went in the inverse of that now where every month I'm not buying. That's right. I'm going to be paying less. Is that the vibe that's out there on the street?

John McGregor
That'd be that'd be the sentiment that we have. From my experience, the way they look at, it's like they're there's no more rush now. There can be a little bit more patient. What else have you got? I'll just wait. I'll. I'll see what happens, you know? So whereas before, it's like I have to get in, it's like, I'll see what happens.

John McGregor
Oh, good. Rush. So for us, you know, even one of our properties, it's we're reconnecting with a buyer 3 to 4 weeks later, it's going to purchase it. And they were they needed that little bit of push static because that house was still available. We'd had a price adjustment and now they're like, okay, that's fair value. Now I'm going to go for it.

John McGregor
And so from in terms of that activity, we're seeing it more as a sort of a balanced market slash buyer's market. We're now. SELLERS if you if would say, look, if you want to have a crack at a price in this current market, I could probably guarantee that you're not going to get it. And that's where they've seen their capital growth.

John McGregor
And then they're trying for even more, you know, but the buyers just aren't in that same headspace anymore. So for the sellers that are selling, why would I'm suggesting make sure you're committed to the sale? Because it may not have that same price expectation you could have got.

Patrick Berry
But it also depends on how long that particular person's own the property. If you buy only on the property for, say, 24 months, then you're probably going to bunker down and hold onto it for a bit longer if you can afford to, because you are probably going to lose some money on it. But if you've owned it, you know, for five or ten years, like you've had exceptional growth.

Patrick Berry
So even if the prices do come back as what the mercury argued, you know, 20% or whatever.

Aaron Horne
Less then.

Patrick Berry
Yeah, actually I think it worked out a 10%, ten.

Aaron Horne
Percent to 10% was.

Patrick Berry
Yeah. So we've had 93% price growth in the last five years and they're predicting it's going to come back this year by 10%. You are still making a lot of money.

John McGregor
You've done okay.

Patrick Berry
Yeah. Yeah. So you just need to remind yourself of that. And the third thing to remember is like we always say is you're buying and selling in the same market. It doesn't matter what you pay for the property and what you get for your property because it should balance out. Yeah, you come unstuck when you sell and then you rent for a while or you don't get back into the market straight away and the market shifts and goes the opposite way that you can come.

Patrick Berry
I guess let slip short.

John McGregor
Yeah, absolutely. And it is interesting where from our interaction with buyers, the rate shifted to being much more comfortable about just indicating interest below the asking price, which is reasonable because I suppose before they're expecting it to go up and they're expecting it to go down at this point. So as opposed to instantly offering, well you know, in Tasmania we shifted very much to offers over and we might find that, that, that we discussed it ourselves, meaning the other day where we might start shifting the way in which the properties were advertised, moving back to fixed prices or offers around or different adjustments just to meet where the buyers are.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, it's funny to go. Ever since I've been working on the media side of things it's been at this offers over language is being used on all the pricing since 2018. It looks easy. It's been like that. And then you're hearing kind of some of the conversations around the office, like I'm thinking about doing a buyer's range of, you know, like the lower end of the spectrum, the high under the spectrum find the right price in the middle of it.

Aaron Horne
And I was like, Oh man. Like, yeah, there is a change. I've never seen it like this before. It's really interesting to see to how the conversations are kind of navigating this thing or a few people have been setting like, Here's the set price, you pay this.

John McGregor
You get, what would you undertake, What's on the paper?

Patrick Berry
Yeah, yeah, it is going to be interesting marketplace like, you know, the big four banks have all predicted pretty big losses this year, ranging from anywhere from 8% right through to 16% price drops, which once again stress we are 93% up. So still you're making money if you are selling this market. But then you move across to some of the economists and they're predicting a different story like Nino's got here in these nights that Eskom research is actually predicting 3 to 7% growth in most capital cities, providing interest rates don't go to sky high.

Patrick Berry
Yeah, so.

Aaron Horne
I and was there a quarter of a percent rise yesterday or half percent rise?

Patrick Berry
Was that one of them. I stopped listening. No, no, it's too scary because I'll be going.

John McGregor
I'll get the letter from my banks every month.

Patrick Berry
I'm just like, Oh, it's more money.

John McGregor
But it, it's.

Patrick Berry
It's just interesting as to who is predicting which way the market will go.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, I guess as I was reading through some of the notes, I was thinking about how by some Press Ltd proper geology, I know there's some info in there, but yeah, he often says that kind of. Yet looking at all this data is at those big centers of Melbourne Sydney our kind of market here in Hobart is it's slightly different.

Aaron Horne
And then in some of his notes he's predicted, you know, Hobart, Burnie, Devonport, pretty good spot to still continue to look. I might have misquoted him then, but he'll be fine with it.

John McGregor
I'm sure if.

Patrick Berry
You're getting Devonport Polytech and.

John McGregor
So that's pretty cool. Yeah.

Aaron Horne
I just don't see if.

John McGregor
It's because.

Patrick Berry
We don't have offices in Burnie.

John McGregor
Devonport No, but.

Patrick Berry
I think for me, if I was thinking about buying in the marketplace, I think there is a window of opportunity there today. Like I think there is a sense of people being a bit worried out there in the market at the moment that worry will disappear at some point this year. Yep. So if you're brave enough to bite the bullet now and say yes, I think you can secure a pretty good deal.

Patrick Berry
But I do think there will come a point at 2023 where everyone realizes that this is the new normal and as will get on with my life, might as well go back and buy property. And that's when you're going to get unstuck and not get those really good, I guess, opportunities to negotiate and get a good price.

John McGregor
Yeah, absolutely. And I guess I would think it's still very much a numbers game. So for a couple of times when I'm trying to help friends buy property at the moment, it's well, you know he's in a difficult situation where it's he's there's different there's high levels of competition at very different price points. He is him and his family looking for their second home.

John McGregor
They've been in the market for a while, but they're going to come under that home share scheme and anything up to 500, they're just really having a hard time because it's still that at 470 to 500 and northern suburbs for a three bedroom house like that's still accept that's shows really exceptional value. Yeah. And they're getting beaten time and time and time and time again.

John McGregor
But then once we move into the sort of 550, 600, I'll just speak for Glenorchy specifically.

Aaron Horne
Yeah. Yep.

John McGregor
That's perfect. The that's when there's a real slowing because the median started to shift back from 600 from 2022 back into 2021 is looking at about 555 550. And so unless the properties are immaculate, it will find a little bit harder to be able to move that quickly. If there's, you know, work that quote unquote needs to be done.

John McGregor
So we're still got a lot of competition for finished homes. But anything that requires a fair bit of maintenance, people are being a little bit more cautious about because of the rising cost of what they've got.

Patrick Berry
Lucky neighbors going in. I'm up.

Aaron Horne
I was about to say the exact same thing.

Patrick Berry
Pat, did you me up today?

Aaron Horne
We've I have tonight with my neighbor.

John McGregor
Know what.

Aaron Horne
We're talking about in last year my neighbor across the road he's who's been selling kitchenette a bit of work. He hadn't painted the side of the house just by being a painter, but but the good news is he's fixed up the backyard. He's gone and painted the whole house through like it was. Some quite elaborate colors. Will say eccentric could be another aware that we could use creative colors has now kind of minimized the the palette to be a bit more nice.

Patrick Berry
It sounds like he has listened to episode 12 with the property part. I reckon it's.

Aaron Horne
Probably. Yeah, he's been no well, so he hasn't changed. He doesn't read the newspaper, he doesn't have Facebook. He's he's just a man of the world.

John McGregor
Yeah.

Aaron Horne
So he's not reading that the market is shifting. So his expectations every time he's added to his prices. So he was appraised at 490. He's like, No, I want 520. Mm. Okay. I will try and achieve that. Oh, his agent who's not us will try and achieve that. Every time he's added he's added a ten grand to the price.

Aaron Horne
So now his expectation is that like 570 I won't sell for less than 570 and he's coming over. It's coming up all the time. I'm, I'm trying to be a parent trying to be a parent about.

John McGregor
And.

Aaron Horne
It's like ask eBay this question. Like, I still don't know the answer to any of this. But my layman's version of this is it's not your idea.

John McGregor
Like you haven't.

Aaron Horne
Had much interest at 520, so you're not going to get extra interest at 570 because you've done a few extra things. But yeah, I'll talk to your agent. Hopefully your agent can help you out. Your neighbor can.

John McGregor
Yeah, I'd heard that before. You know, it's like, Oh, mate, maybe we're pricing it too cheap and people think there's something wrong with it. But, mate, it's not, you know, you're not fine Art. I could say it's a house doesn't work on the same philosophy.

Aaron Horne
But just in another update from my street and issues that we had where we were talking about the guy with the really long grass. Yeah, that you could I go and offer to mow his lawn just on the off chance that would make my straight look better and have better straight appeal. Not the worst house on the street.

Aaron Horne
He has done such a good job at whippersnapper ing it. He's been out in his tiny little short shorts. He's got like the little stubby shorts or these tiny little white stick legs. Sarah went by that to now the dog walking the dog. She said, It's looking really good, mate, and the smile on his face. So it must be it.

Patrick Berry
Ready to sell or reckon.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, we'll be interesting. Yeah. He has done an immaculate job. So my street is looking cracker. There's a house opposite me that's for sale for about 570 if you're interested.

John McGregor
Because your neighbors lawns are amazing.

John McGregor
Yeah, it.

Aaron Horne
Could. Freshly painted.

John McGregor
It could have been like me. Like I. My grass is the worst and straight for ages because I just didn't own a lawn mower whippersnapper for ages where we weren't living there. But now it's it's always kept level as a reminder, do the same, same routine.

Aaron Horne
Now you kill it off.

John McGregor
Yeah, it's all budgets burnt it.

John McGregor
Just.

John McGregor
So far the lawns.

Patrick Berry
I've managed to turn my nice green rental grass into straw. Fantastic garden. No more.

John McGregor
John. It's water. It's not. Yeah, it's. It's crunchy strong down. Yeah.

John McGregor
We're going to see less minus for you.

Patrick Berry
My mother once and now.

John McGregor
She doesn't amount in more.

Aaron Horne
The hardier. Well, look, guys, it's great to be back in the studio. It's kind of an interesting year. Yeah, just market wise, things are changing. It's going to be interesting. We'll try and keep a positive spin on it like we do here in the studio. But yeah, be interesting to kind of pick the brains of other people out there of how they're finding themselves.

John McGregor
Well, I was only thinking about it this morning when just it'd be interesting to listen to moments like the conversations we had when the markets were very, very different and like what was the advice, etc., that were saying at the time.

Aaron Horne
I'd love just to listen to the smack that we talk.

John McGregor
Yeah, it could.

Aaron Horne
But you could probably skip 90% of it. We just need like a podcast, paraphrase it, it's like it takes all the rubbish out and then get a two minute byte of really good information.

John McGregor
Yeah, Yeah, I'm with you, man. Yeah, it's. It's this big shift. I mean, the way that we're operating is changing. So familiar practitioner's perspective. The conversations definitely are different, and I'll be interested to see how the map over the next six months.

Aaron Horne

John McGregor
Recorded and.

Aaron Horne
Edited by Foreman for Media House in conjunction with four one for Property Code.

Patrick Berry
This podcast is general information only and the thoughts of views expressed is the opinion of our panel. And listeners should always seek than use their own investigation into any topic we discuss to ensure they fully understand their own situation.

John McGregor
It does not constitute and should not be relied on as purchasing, selling, financial or investment advice or recommendations expressed or implied, and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any agent or investment services. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken on the basis of this information without first seeking qualified and professional advice.